Sub-Group Analysis

In Thursdays class we talked about the analysis of subgroups. This is were the actual scientific results come from. Here the researchers are able to divide the population into distinct groups and determine trends among them. Some examples of these subgroups could be race, sex, marital status, smokers, students, political affiliation to name a few. With specific questions aimed at certain demographics pollsters are able to determine differences and similarities among these sub groups. This method allows allows the researcher to display the information gathered in many different ways. Through the use of charts and graphs the information can be set in a way that is easily understandable to the majority of the public regardless of their knowledge of public opinion.

Question Wording

The results of a poll can be strongly guided or anticipated with specific wording of questions. The wording of these questions can potentially confuse a person taking the poll in hopes of guiding them towards a certain agenda. Pollsters do this by using leading questions, ambigious or unclear questions, double negatives, jargon, or confusing or big words not everyone easily understands, double-barreled questions which aim to answer two questions with one answer, as well as overlapping or inadequate response alternatives. I recently found a poll that has completely different results than my main poll. This could be in part to the targeted audience or the way in which the questions were worded. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/march_2009/79_support_u_s_troops_on_the_border_to_fight_drug_violence This poll shows that there is overwhelming support for the military to become an active part in the security of our border. According to the poll 79% of American voters beleive it would be appropriate. This has made a staggering 21% jump in only two months. The reason for this rise in support is the continious drug smuggling and violence that comes along with it. 90% of republicans beleive security should be enforced, as well as, 72% of democrats which is a very large jump compared to my original poll. The poll asked questions like if people were scared that the drug violence would spill over into the United States. This kinda of wording is somewhat like the problem of question sequencing. It wouldbe unlikely for anyone to say that they would want to see Mexican violence move into the United States. Another reason this poll might be so different than my original is that instead of searching for immigration i searced border security. These words probably reached an entirely different audience with entirely different views. This shows how important the wording of not only the questions in the poll but also the title of the poll itslef. Wording of everything can have a drastic impact on the results of a poll. Resulting in what is not actually public opinion.

Non-Attitudes and Immigration

Non-attitudes are when people being asked polling questions answer the questions despite the fact that they have no opinion, or even worse know nothing of what the pollster is talking about. It is said that people do this for many reasons. One could be to make themselves look better in front of the pollster, they are uninformed and to embarrassed to admit it, or even answer the questions just because they feel it is rude to not answer them. We learned in class that non-attitudes are most likely to come from 4 types of issues or policies. The first is international issues. These are issues that happen over seas and have little or nothing to do with America. Another is low-salience issues. These are issues that are not very prominent and do not receive much media coverage. State and local issues are also likely to have many non-attitudes. And finally issues that have many details within a policy are likely to not have many followers. This is referred to as policy minutia. My topic of immigration would not seem to have the problem of non-attitudes. It is an international issue but it is also very much a domestic one. It is something that most every has an opinion on. Although it does not get much coverage with everything else currently going on it has been highly publicized in the past. Shortly following 9/11 many Americans felt strongly about immigration reform and the safety of our country. This enthusiasm has faded but is still a problem today. It has nothing to do with state and local issues. Policy minutia is the only potential for non-attitudes. When asking if we should strengthen border security most everyone could answer confidently yes or no. However when looking at specific details that are not commonly known to the public problems may arise. For examples issues of illegal immigrants already in the country or currently being held in correctional facilities what should happen to them? Or the illegals with children that are citizens of America. Do we let them stay? or deport them all? This and other questions can potentially make this problem a little serious than i have expected.

Sampling

When dealing with public opinion polls it is obvious that the entire population will not be asked the questions. In order to best represent the opinions of the entire population pollsters will chose a sample of the population to represent the entire thing. This is a necessary part of polling because it would be far to expensive and time consuming to attempt to reach the entire public. However, sampling is one of the most scrutinized aspect of polling. Many people believe that pollsters will chose a sample which will abide by an already set agenda. For example when dealing with immigration it is likely to see a poll largely in favor of immigration reform in the south but not as much in the north. This is because people in the south are more affected and know what kind of trouble it can cause. This is a targeted audience. To avoid this problem pollsters will use one of many sampling techniques. These techniques include simple random sampling, which takes a population and randomly grabs a chunk. Another way is systematic sampling in which pollsters take a list of people and choose every 10th person on the list to be surveyed. These ways among others help pollsters be sure they have the best interest of the entire population in mind. Though there are still problems within these polling techniques due to the complexity of the task it is the best way to go about doing it.

Pseudo Polls

Recently i was watching the news and saw some very peculiar public opinion polls. While watching i realized that these polls seemed to sway towards one side or the other with not much reason behind them. The poll was regarding immigration and was being broadcast ed on Fox News. Today the media tends to be a little biased when it comes to certain issues. Much like the clip in class from the Jon Stewart Show Fox asked a question regarding health care in which almost 98% of Americans believed taxes should not be raised. Coincidentally, CNN ran a similar poll with the same question worded differently. In this poll almost 98% of people were in favor of raising taxes. This is due in large part because of the respondents who are calling and texting into the show. These people watch the news regularly and tend to agree with the network they are in favor of. When that network asks a broad question it is likely they are going to receive the results they were looking for. For people that arent familiar with polling this can be greatly confusing. They think with such an overwhelming number in favor or against it would be a relatively easy decision for Washington to make. However, these polls are written and aimed towards specific people who the network knows are going to respond in favor of them.
The results of the poll i was watching were completely different than those on the poll i am studying over the course of the semester. This is inlarge part due to the respondents and their beleifs. If one is strongly infavor of or against immigration they are likely to make their voises heard. Because of this these extremists are usually the only people who respond to these polls. With many biased polls and networks trying to force their agenda it makes it very difficult for Americans today to form their own beleifs and opinions and act on them. Pseuado polls may be useful in some topics and some areas of the nation, however when it comes to large issues they can tend to misconstrew and confuse the average American public.